Vivid Seats Stock Tumbles After Analyst Downgrades

The stock for Vivid Seats (NASDAQ: SEAT) has taken a significant hit this week, on news that Wall Street analysts have slashed their outlook and price targets for the ticket resale marketplace. The stock closed at $4.08 on Monday, down more than 14% since markets closed on Monday afternoon.

Three banks – Deutche Bank, Benchmark, and Craig-Hallum all adjusted their targets for Vivid Seats downward, according to wire reports.

“We are moderating expectations for Q3 given recent third-party data points indicate the concert supply headwind accelerated in August, on top of already challenging comps (Taylor Swift and Beyoncé),” said Craig-Hallum analyst Ryan Sigdahl in a research note to clients ahead of trading Tuesday.

Vivid’s news comes at the end of a summer that saw significant headlines indicating fan fatigue on ticket prices that have spiraled upwards across the board for live events in recent years.

In one high profile instance, The Black Keys cancelled more than 30 dates across North America, a decision largely attributed to high ticket prices being asked by the band and its promoters. Other notable tours to cancel multiple dates (or the entire run) amid rumors of poor sales included Jennifer Lopez, Pink, Justin Timberlake, and The Jonas Brothers. Just this week Childish Gambino postponed his upcoming shows, though he cited physical health as the logic behind the decision rather than any slow sales.

While sales on resale marketplaces such as Vivid Seats would not directly impact the decision by a tour promoter to call of dates, poor sales at inflated prices on the primary market would typically imply poor sales on the secondary market as a downstream factor.

With the fall boom in sports tickets – driven by NFL and college football’s return, as well as baseball playoffs coming soon – resale marketplaces should see better figures in the coming months, according to Craig-Hallum. “Our checks indicate ticket prices in the NFL and NBA are up double-digits [year-over-year], while the secondary market fared well with robust demand for the U.S. Open (tennis) and college football, aided by post-conference realignment interest,” Sigdahl wrote.

Vivid Seats has been publicly traded since 2021, when it merged with a special purpose acquisition company at $10 per share. After an early surge, the stock has been steadily declining for more than two years – falling below $10 in the spring of 2022 and spending the majority of 2024 trading below $6 per share. In the company’s Q2 earnings report, it indicated a net loss of $1.2 million on revenues of $198.3 million.